June 24, 2009
I guess we can put this in the “Gee, I didn’t see this one coming” column. There is a report today in Bloomberg blaming low appraisals as a major problem in the housing recovery. The problems are manifesting themselves in torpedoed homes sales and putting increasing downward pressure on home values.
Existing home prices fell 17% nationwide from May 2008 to May 2009. The new appraisal rules that went into place on May 1 last month probably didn’t help. Although the Denver Metro market is not immune, we seem to be recovery nicely and not experiencing anywhere near the problems in other parts of the country. The resort towns of Colorado remain stagnant. For the full report, click this link.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601206&sid=aacHqlTB6jTg
June 9, 2009
The National Association of Realtors is reporting that existing home sales grew 2.9 percent nationally in April when compared to March. But the national statistics obscure the fact that the West is outperforming other regions of the country.
In the West, sales of existing homes were up 3.5 percent. For April 2009 vs. April 2008, the West was up 19.4 percent and was the only region reflecting a positive trend. The Northeast was down 10.5 percent, Midwest down 9.9 percent and the South was down 8.9 percent.
A recent NAR survey of its Realtors suggests the number of first-time buyers declined to 40 percent of the total in April. These results were taken as a sign that more repeat buyers are entering the market during the traditional spring home-buying season.
NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said it is important that distressed properties be quickly cleared from the market.
The Associated Press reported Thursday that a record 12 percent of homeowners with a mortgage are behind on their payments or in foreclosure.
The AP also reported that nationally sales of newly built homes were flat in April, but 7 percent above the historic lows of January. There were 297,000 new homes for sale at the end of April, down 4 percent from 310,000 in March.
June 3, 2009
The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price index, a bellwether of real-estate market direction, plunged a record 19.1% during the quarter compared with the first three months of 2008. That followed an 18.2% drop last quarter.
The Case-Shiller 20-city index dropped 18.7% year-over-year, also a record. It fell 18.5% during the last three months of 2008. This index has plummeted 32.2% from its July 2006 peak and has fallen 32 straight months.
The national index covers almost all homes sold throughout the United States and is reported quarterly, while the 20-city index reports sales in 20 major metro areas and represents a cross section of the national market. The 20-city index comes out every month.
An increase in sales volume has not translated into higher prices. Bottom fishing for foreclosures and other distressed properties has driven sales volume up while further depressing prices.
Foreclosure sales, which many appraisers used to ignore when they evaluated home prices because they represented outliers rather than typical sales, now have to be accounted for.
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Here is the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index. Glad to see Denver at the bottom of this list!
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Metro area
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1-year change (%)
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Phoenix
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-36.0%
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Las Vegas
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-31.2%
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San Francisco
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-30.1%
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Miami
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-28.7%
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Detroit
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-25.7%
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Minneapolis
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-23.3%
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Tampa
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-22.4%
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Los Angeles
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-22.3%
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San Diego
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-22.0%
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Chicago
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-18.6%
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Washington
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-18.4%
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Seattle
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-16.4%
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Atlanta
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-15.7%
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Portland
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-15.3%
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New York
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-11.8%
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Charlotte
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-9.3%
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Cleveland
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-9.0%
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Boston
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-8.0%
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Dallas
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-5.6%
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Denver
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-5.5%
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Composite-20
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-18.7%
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Source:S&P/Case-Shiller
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